Which one will be COVID-19? – NBC New York

The astonishing rise in COVID-19 cases across the country fueled primarily by the highly contagious omicron variant has many Americans wondering how long it will take for the pandemic to finally subside. While a crystal ball cannot provide an exact timeline, many medical experts help determine what the future may hold.

The shift from an infectious disease from a pandemic to an endemic disease occurs when the virus is regularly found in a specific area or among people. The main difference with an endemic case is that the virus can be more controllable with an increase in the immunity of the population.

Colds and influenza are examples of endemic viral infections that the public frequently encounters. The medical director for infection prevention at Mount Sinai Health System, Dr. Bernard Cummins, believes that the Sars-Cov-2 virus will eventually become endemic over time.

“The definition of endemicity is that [Sars-Cov-2] Will return annually, especially when winter comes. When it becomes endemic, Dr. Bernard Cummins told NBC New York that it shouldn’t affect a large portion of the population — just certain groups.

Dr. Cummins adds that it may be years before Sars-Cov-2 stops impeding large-scale travel plans, hospitalization rates and healthcare systems.

With the omicron variant spreading rapidly, what symptoms should you look for?

Omicron may be light, but what about future variants?

It is important to understand that while cases of the omicron variant are milder than others, another strain of SARS-CoV-2 may well emerge in the coming months that could pose a greater threat with a different set of mutations or virulence as delta.

Most countries in the world are not immune. While most Americans and Europeans may be vaccinated, other countries, such as South Africa and India, lag behind in vaccination rates.

It’s possible and likely the world will see more variants emerge, says Dr. Betty Steinberg, a virologist at the Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research.

Dr. Steinberg, who suspects more mutations will occur over the years, suggests, “Just as the omicron from South Africa did, variants with enough variations from the strains we have some immunity to, will appear to give us another spike.” , short term.

Dr. Jeffrey Shaman is Professor of Environmental Health Sciences at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. He maintains that a COVID-19 vaccine will provide partial protection if that time comes the same way it did during the Delta outbreak.

Drawing a narrative that this is the first step where we see logical progression toward something milder is a flawed evolutionary argument, in my view.

– Dr. Jeffrey Shaman,
Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health

There are two arguments about why the SARS-CoV-2 virus causes milder infections, Dr. Shaman explained to NBC New York. On the one hand, when a pathogen is in a host for an extended period of time, it tends to become more transmissible and less virulent.

“When the virus remains in a host, there will be a specific pressure exerted so that if a variant appears that is more transmissible than the other variants, it will pass through the host population faster,” Dr. Shaman said.

The winning and faster variant will outperform the competition and either replace or replace the contenders. However, Dr. Shaman says there is an innate limit to how much virus can mutate physically.

On the other hand, the doctor says that a milder virus framework is possible because it is unfavorable for the pathogen to kill its host. The rationale behind this reasoning is that if a virus kills its host before reproducing and infecting others, it shortens the entire raison d’être. This is only true if the virus is transmitted before it kills the host.

Much transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus occurs before people develop symptoms, especially in severe cases. For Dr. Shaman, the stress of choice disappeared because of this reasoning.

Moreover, Dr. Shaman cautiously states that not enough people have died from SARS-CoV-2 compared to the total population.

“Because of underreporting, maybe 20 million people died from COVID-19, which is a huge number, but it’s a drop in 7.7 billion hosts, especially in the rate of reproduction ourselves,” Dr. Shaman explained.

For this researcher, this coronavirus has not yet exhausted its own pool of people to infect, and there is not enough evidence to show select pressure toward a milder species.

Are we entering the endemic stage?

The rather hard truth is that only time can tell. Experts’ views tell NBC New York that there is a chance the world will enter a post-pandemic phase this year.

But it will take years of hindsight to understand this. The virus can travel in a certain pattern. Dr. Shaman gives an example of the possibility of seeing the future where the world sees only two changes per year.

“For example, in 2022 we get three waves. In 2023, we get one. In 2024 and 2025, there are two waves, and by 2026 only one. We will say that there are roughly two variables each year that come in causing the outbreak, and after Just looking at a five-year history, we’ll start by saying it’s the pattern [the virus has] Fell in,” explained Dr. Shaman.

According to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there have been nearly 60,000,000 cases of COVID-19 in the United States over the past 30 days with more than 830,000 deaths.

In New York state alone, more than 90,000 new cases of COVID-19 were reported on Saturday. More than half of those, nearly 47,000 cases, were found in New York City.

New York Gov. Cathy Hoshol expressed “cautious optimism” that COVID trends show a slowdown in the growth rate for the first time an omicron was discovered in the Big Apple.

Dr. Rochelle Wallinsky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, isn’t convinced that O’Micron has peaked for the nation, but he hopes after reviewing New York’s seemingly plateau numbers.

With more than one in five COVID tests positive, those patients who develop COVID-19 during an increased omicron may have some additional immunity. Dr. Steinberg points out that those advanced cases of full vaccination may act as a booster when it comes to immunity — at least for this type of vaccination.

She says whether this infection will provide immunity to a future variant is still a question because of the potential for other mutations. As more populations get omicrons, this can provide immunity for a while.

“Immunity diminishes over time, after which you can be more susceptible to infection. But since many people are currently infected, I think this particular increase will not last long. It will run out of targets for the virus.” Dr. Steinberg said.

With omicron causing record infections in the United States, many are left wondering which COVID-19 test is most effective.

How can we get to the post-pandemic world?

Although there is no foresight to determine the exact date when the world will enter the post-pandemic era, some scholars have expressed that it is time to change the public’s thinking process.

Perhaps residents will have to come to terms with the notion that COVID-19 is here to stay, they say.

“In my opinion, knowing what I know, we have to learn to live with it. When we have such a spike, I’m not necessarily advocating for shutdowns again or shutdowns of businesses, but I think people need to be careful,” Dr. Cummins said.

Dr. Steinberg says people can look at preventing COVID-19 like wearing layers of clothing for the winter — every addition helps.

Dr. Steinberg explained, “One layer is vaccination. Another layer is the fact that a lot of people who get it, they will have some immunity, at least for a while. And the third layer will be the best treatment.”

Purvi Parikh, an allergist and immunologist at Allergy and Asthma Network, adds that even milder strains can cause negative effects on the health care system, such as delaying care for other emergencies.

“I hate the word ‘mild.’ It gets less severe, I’ll say it that way. But that being said, we still see people being hospitalized, especially unvaccinated individuals. I think it’s a good sign that at least strains are starting to move in that direction where fingers aren’t lethal. “.

With the rapid spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, when are people with the virus most contagious?


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